STANDARD COMPETENCIES

 

 1. Demonstrate the process of building simple weather forecasts including interpretation of data, creation of reports, and the

     presentation of results to instructors, mentors, and student peers.

 2. Demonstrate the process of building simple avalanche forecasts including interpretation of data, creation of reports, and the

     presentation of results to instructors, mentors, and student peers.

 3. Identify basic elements of the forecasting process as it relates to weather and avalanches

 4. Identify core concepts and topics integral to the forecasting process

 5. Show how to prioritize and segregate information related to the forecast

 6. Illustrate various communication methods and concepts used to deliver a forecast

 

 TOPICAL OUTLINE

 

 I. Introduce concepts of forecasting and defining a forecast problem

 II. Overview of the forecasting process

 III. Using historical events in forecasting

 IV. Interpreting and adding value to existing forecasts

 V. Introduction to temporal and spatial context and scales

 VI. Introduction to the concepts of uncertainty and error

 VII. Introduction to the concepts of information strength and weight

 VIII. Overview of methods employed to communicate the forecast

 IX. Introduction of concepts of forecast verification

 X. Completing hazard assessment worksheets

 XI. Forecast composition, presentation, and defense

 XII. Using forecasts to make operational decisions